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Latent ODEs for Irregularly-Sampled Time Series

About

Time series with non-uniform intervals occur in many applications, and are difficult to model using standard recurrent neural networks (RNNs). We generalize RNNs to have continuous-time hidden dynamics defined by ordinary differential equations (ODEs), a model we call ODE-RNNs. Furthermore, we use ODE-RNNs to replace the recognition network of the recently-proposed Latent ODE model. Both ODE-RNNs and Latent ODEs can naturally handle arbitrary time gaps between observations, and can explicitly model the probability of observation times using Poisson processes. We show experimentally that these ODE-based models outperform their RNN-based counterparts on irregularly-sampled data.

Yulia Rubanova, Ricky T. Q. Chen, David Duvenaud• 2019

Related benchmarks

TaskDatasetResultRank
Event PredictionStackOverflow
ACC46.7
58
Time Series ReconstructionMuJoCo (test)
MSE0.285
51
Spacecraft Trajectory ForecastingNASA CDDIS (RTN Frame) Interpolation Horizons 1000M
MSE (%)0.29
42
Spacecraft Trajectory ForecastingNASA CDDIS RTN Frame Extrapolation Horizons 5760M
MSE (%)11
42
Spacecraft Trajectory ForecastingNASA CDDIS RTN Frame Interpolation Horizons 2000M
MSE (%)1.24
42
Spacecraft Trajectory ForecastingNASA CDDIS RTN Frame 4000M (Extrapolation Horizons)
MSE (%)4.99
42
ClassificationActivity
Accuracy78.5
34
ClassificationPhysioNet
AUC Score0.781
23
Mortality PredictionP-Mortality P12 (test)
AUPRC50.7
19
Per time-step regressionWalker2D
Squared Error1.051
19
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