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Neural Stochastic Differential Equations: Deep Latent Gaussian Models in the Diffusion Limit

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In deep latent Gaussian models, the latent variable is generated by a time-inhomogeneous Markov chain, where at each time step we pass the current state through a parametric nonlinear map, such as a feedforward neural net, and add a small independent Gaussian perturbation. This work considers the diffusion limit of such models, where the number of layers tends to infinity, while the step size and the noise variance tend to zero. The limiting latent object is an It\^o diffusion process that solves a stochastic differential equation (SDE) whose drift and diffusion coefficient are implemented by neural nets. We develop a variational inference framework for these \textit{neural SDEs} via stochastic automatic differentiation in Wiener space, where the variational approximations to the posterior are obtained by Girsanov (mean-shift) transformation of the standard Wiener process and the computation of gradients is based on the theory of stochastic flows. This permits the use of black-box SDE solvers and automatic differentiation for end-to-end inference. Experimental results with synthetic data are provided.

Belinda Tzen, Maxim Raginsky• 2019

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TaskDatasetResultRank
InterpolationPhysioNet Mortality 2012 (test)
Mean Squared Error (MSE)8.252
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Time-series classificationPhysioNet Sepsis (test)
AUROC79.9
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ClassificationBasicMotions 50% Missing
Accuracy50
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ForecastingMuJoCo Regular (test)
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ForecastingMuJoCo 30% Dropped (test)
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ForecastingMuJoCo 50% Dropped (test)
MSE0.029
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ForecastingMuJoCo 70% Dropped (test)
MSE0.027
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Time-series classification30 benchmark datasets Regular (test)
Accuracy52.6
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Time-series classificationbenchmark datasets 30% Missing (test)
Accuracy50.8
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Time-series classificationUEA & UCR Repository Missing (50%)
Accuracy51.7
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