SDE-Net: Equipping Deep Neural Networks with Uncertainty Estimates
About
Uncertainty quantification is a fundamental yet unsolved problem for deep learning. The Bayesian framework provides a principled way of uncertainty estimation but is often not scalable to modern deep neural nets (DNNs) that have a large number of parameters. Non-Bayesian methods are simple to implement but often conflate different sources of uncertainties and require huge computing resources. We propose a new method for quantifying uncertainties of DNNs from a dynamical system perspective. The core of our method is to view DNN transformations as state evolution of a stochastic dynamical system and introduce a Brownian motion term for capturing epistemic uncertainty. Based on this perspective, we propose a neural stochastic differential equation model (SDE-Net) which consists of (1) a drift net that controls the system to fit the predictive function; and (2) a diffusion net that captures epistemic uncertainty. We theoretically analyze the existence and uniqueness of the solution to SDE-Net. Our experiments demonstrate that the SDE-Net model can outperform existing uncertainty estimation methods across a series of tasks where uncertainty plays a fundamental role.
Related benchmarks
| Task | Dataset | Result | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Time-series generation | fBm H=0.3 | ACF1.995 | 4 | |
| Time-series generation | ethernetTraffic | ACF3.902 | 4 | |
| Time-series generation | fBm H=0.2 | ACF1.22 | 4 | |
| Time-series generation | SPX | ACF2.762 | 4 | |
| Time-series generation | NileMin | ACF1.527 | 4 | |
| Time-series generation | TPX | ACF Deviation1.9 | 4 | |
| Time-series generation | SX5E | ACF2.609 | 4 | |
| Time-series generation | NhemiTemp | ACF2.092 | 4 |