BiTraP: Bi-directional Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction with Multi-modal Goal Estimation
About
Pedestrian trajectory prediction is an essential task in robotic applications such as autonomous driving and robot navigation. State-of-the-art trajectory predictors use a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) with recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to encode observed trajectories and decode multi-modal future trajectories. This process can suffer from accumulated errors over long prediction horizons (>=2 seconds). This paper presents BiTraP, a goal-conditioned bi-directional multi-modal trajectory prediction method based on the CVAE. BiTraP estimates the goal (end-point) of trajectories and introduces a novel bi-directional decoder to improve longer-term trajectory prediction accuracy. Extensive experiments show that BiTraP generalizes to both first-person view (FPV) and bird's-eye view (BEV) scenarios and outperforms state-of-the-art results by ~10-50%. We also show that different choices of non-parametric versus parametric target models in the CVAE directly influence the predicted multi-modal trajectory distributions. These results provide guidance on trajectory predictor design for robotic applications such as collision avoidance and navigation systems.
Related benchmarks
| Task | Dataset | Result | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trajectory Prediction | ETH UCY (test) | ADE0.17 | 65 | |
| Trajectory Prediction | ZARA1 v1.0 (test) | ADE0.13 | 58 | |
| Trajectory Prediction | ETH UCY Average (test) | -- | 52 | |
| Trajectory Prediction | Hotel (test) | ADE (4.8s)0.12 | 49 | |
| Trajectory Prediction | Hotel ETH-UCY (test) | ADE0.12 | 48 | |
| Trajectory Prediction | ZARA2 (test) | ADE (4.8s)0.1 | 45 | |
| Trajectory Prediction | ZARA2 v1.0 (test) | ADE0.1 | 36 | |
| Trajectory Prediction | Univ (test) | ADE (4.8s)0.17 | 29 | |
| Trajectory Prediction | ZARA1 (test) | ADE (4.8s)0.13 | 29 | |
| Multi-agent Trajectory Prediction | NBA dataset | ADE0.46 | 26 |