Is MC Dropout Bayesian?
About
MC Dropout is a mainstream "free lunch" method in medical imaging for approximate Bayesian computations (ABC). Its appeal is to solve out-of-the-box the daunting task of ABC and uncertainty quantification in Neural Networks (NNs); to fall within the variational inference (VI) framework; and to propose a highly multimodal, faithful predictive posterior. We question the properties of MC Dropout for approximate inference, as in fact MC Dropout changes the Bayesian model; its predictive posterior assigns $0$ probability to the true model on closed-form benchmarks; the multimodality of its predictive posterior is not a property of the true predictive posterior but a design artefact. To address the need for VI on arbitrary models, we share a generic VI engine within the pytorch framework. The code includes a carefully designed implementation of structured (diagonal plus low-rank) multivariate normal variational families, and mixtures thereof. It is intended as a go-to no-free-lunch approach, addressing shortcomings of mean-field VI with an adjustable trade-off between expressivity and computational complexity.
Related benchmarks
| Task | Dataset | Result | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OOD Detection | CIFAR-10 (test) | AUROC94 | 40 | |
| OOD Detection | CIFAR10 | AUC88.7 | 28 | |
| OOD Detection | PAPILA | AUC73.3 | 9 | |
| OOD Detection | ACRIMA | AUC86.9 | 9 | |
| Misclassification Detection | HAM10000 | AUC82.9 | 9 | |
| Misclassification Detection | GL V2 | AUC76.8 | 9 | |
| OOD Detection | CIFAR-10 | OOD UCE0.699 | 9 | |
| OOD Detection | ACRIMA | OOD-UCE30.7 | 9 | |
| Medical Image Classification | GLV2 (test) | AUC0.979 | 7 | |
| OOD Detection | ACRIMA (test) | AUC85 | 7 |