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Learning Fast and Slow for Online Time Series Forecasting

About

The fast adaptation capability of deep neural networks in non-stationary environments is critical for online time series forecasting. Successful solutions require handling changes to new and recurring patterns. However, training deep neural forecaster on the fly is notoriously challenging because of their limited ability to adapt to non-stationary environments and the catastrophic forgetting of old knowledge. In this work, inspired by the Complementary Learning Systems (CLS) theory, we propose Fast and Slow learning Networks (FSNet), a holistic framework for online time-series forecasting to simultaneously deal with abrupt changing and repeating patterns. Particularly, FSNet improves the slowly-learned backbone by dynamically balancing fast adaptation to recent changes and retrieving similar old knowledge. FSNet achieves this mechanism via an interaction between two complementary components of an adapter to monitor each layer's contribution to the lost, and an associative memory to support remembering, updating, and recalling repeating events. Extensive experiments on real and synthetic datasets validate FSNet's efficacy and robustness to both new and recurring patterns. Our code is available at \url{https://github.com/salesforce/fsnet}.

Quang Pham, Chenghao Liu, Doyen Sahoo, Steven C.H. Hoi• 2022

Related benchmarks

TaskDatasetResultRank
Time Series ForecastingETTh1
MSE0.877
601
Time Series ForecastingETTh2
MSE0.587
438
Time Series ForecastingETTm2
MSE1.113
382
Time Series ForecastingETTm1
MSE0.851
334
Time Series ForecastingExchange
MSE0.878
176
Time Series ForecastingETTh2
MASE1.1
52
Time Series ForecastingETTh1
MASE0.92
52
Time Series ForecastingECL
MASE0.96
41
Time Series ForecastingTraffic
MASE0.7
30
Time Series ForecastingWTH
MASE1.17
27
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