AutoGluon-TimeSeries: AutoML for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting
About
We introduce AutoGluon-TimeSeries - an open-source AutoML library for probabilistic time series forecasting. Focused on ease of use and robustness, AutoGluon-TimeSeries enables users to generate accurate point and quantile forecasts with just 3 lines of Python code. Built on the design philosophy of AutoGluon, AutoGluon-TimeSeries leverages ensembles of diverse forecasting models to deliver high accuracy within a short training time. AutoGluon-TimeSeries combines both conventional statistical models, machine-learning based forecasting approaches, and ensembling techniques. In our evaluation on 29 benchmark datasets, AutoGluon-TimeSeries demonstrates strong empirical performance, outperforming a range of forecasting methods in terms of both point and quantile forecast accuracy, and often even improving upon the best-in-hindsight combination of prior methods.
Related benchmarks
| Task | Dataset | Result | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long-term forecasting | ETTm1 | MSE0.482 | 422 | |
| Long-term forecasting | ETTh1 | MSE0.503 | 409 | |
| Long-term forecasting | ETTm2 | MSE0.273 | 350 | |
| Long-term forecasting | ETTh2 | MSE0.419 | 310 | |
| Time Series Forecasting | Stock | MAE5.258 | 45 | |
| Long-term forecasting | ECL | MSE0.265 | 42 | |
| Long-term forecasting | Traffic | MSE0.555 | 39 | |
| Probabilistic time series forecasting | ETTm1 | CRPS0.162 | 34 | |
| Financial Strategy Generation | Crypto | ∆VaR0.022 | 34 | |
| Time Series Forecasting | Crypto | RMSE0.223 | 17 |