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AutoGluon-TimeSeries: AutoML for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting

About

We introduce AutoGluon-TimeSeries - an open-source AutoML library for probabilistic time series forecasting. Focused on ease of use and robustness, AutoGluon-TimeSeries enables users to generate accurate point and quantile forecasts with just 3 lines of Python code. Built on the design philosophy of AutoGluon, AutoGluon-TimeSeries leverages ensembles of diverse forecasting models to deliver high accuracy within a short training time. AutoGluon-TimeSeries combines both conventional statistical models, machine-learning based forecasting approaches, and ensembling techniques. In our evaluation on 29 benchmark datasets, AutoGluon-TimeSeries demonstrates strong empirical performance, outperforming a range of forecasting methods in terms of both point and quantile forecast accuracy, and often even improving upon the best-in-hindsight combination of prior methods.

Oleksandr Shchur, Caner Turkmen, Nick Erickson, Huibin Shen, Alexander Shirkov, Tony Hu, Yuyang Wang• 2023

Related benchmarks

TaskDatasetResultRank
Long-term forecastingETTm1
MSE0.482
422
Long-term forecastingETTh1
MSE0.503
409
Long-term forecastingETTm2
MSE0.273
350
Long-term forecastingETTh2
MSE0.419
310
Time Series ForecastingStock
MAE5.258
45
Long-term forecastingECL
MSE0.265
42
Long-term forecastingTraffic
MSE0.555
39
Probabilistic time series forecastingETTm1
CRPS0.162
34
Financial Strategy GenerationCrypto
∆VaR0.022
34
Time Series ForecastingCrypto
RMSE0.223
17
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