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ClimaX: A foundation model for weather and climate

About

Most state-of-the-art approaches for weather and climate modeling are based on physics-informed numerical models of the atmosphere. These approaches aim to model the non-linear dynamics and complex interactions between multiple variables, which are challenging to approximate. Additionally, many such numerical models are computationally intensive, especially when modeling the atmospheric phenomenon at a fine-grained spatial and temporal resolution. Recent data-driven approaches based on machine learning instead aim to directly solve a downstream forecasting or projection task by learning a data-driven functional mapping using deep neural networks. However, these networks are trained using curated and homogeneous climate datasets for specific spatiotemporal tasks, and thus lack the generality of numerical models. We develop and demonstrate ClimaX, a flexible and generalizable deep learning model for weather and climate science that can be trained using heterogeneous datasets spanning different variables, spatio-temporal coverage, and physical groundings. ClimaX extends the Transformer architecture with novel encoding and aggregation blocks that allow effective use of available compute while maintaining general utility. ClimaX is pre-trained with a self-supervised learning objective on climate datasets derived from CMIP6. The pre-trained ClimaX can then be fine-tuned to address a breadth of climate and weather tasks, including those that involve atmospheric variables and spatio-temporal scales unseen during pretraining. Compared to existing data-driven baselines, we show that this generality in ClimaX results in superior performance on benchmarks for weather forecasting and climate projections, even when pretrained at lower resolutions and compute budgets. The source code is available at https://github.com/microsoft/ClimaX.

Tung Nguyen, Johannes Brandstetter, Ashish Kapoor, Jayesh K. Gupta, Aditya Grover• 2023

Related benchmarks

TaskDatasetResultRank
10m Wind Speed (Wind10) Ensemble ForecastingERA5
CRPS1.801
18
2m Temperature (T2m) Ensemble ForecastingERA5
CRPS2.278
18
Geopotential at 500hPa (Z500) Ensemble ForecastingERA5
CRPS (Z500)650
18
Temperature at 850hPa (T850) Ensemble ForecastingERA5
CRPS2.827
18
Atmospheric DownscalingMPI-ESM (5.625°) to ERA5 (1.40625°)
LRMSE (Z500)807.4
11
Weather forecastingWeatherBench 3 Day Forecast
Average ACC68.7
9
PM2.5 PredictionEEA ground monitoring stations T+1 Complex Stations 2022 (σz ≥ 50 m, N = 875)
RMSE16.79
7
PM2.5 PredictionEEA ground monitoring stations T+1 2022 (All Stations)
RMSE11.97
7
PM2.5 PredictionEEA ground monitoring stations Flat Stations T+1 2022 (σz < 50 m, N = 2096)
RMSE9.22
7
PM2.5 PredictionEuropean PM2.5 prediction 1 km resolution evaluation (test)
RMSE (T+1)7.54
7
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