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A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecasting

About

Motivated by recent advances in large language models for Natural Language Processing (NLP), we design a time-series foundation model for forecasting whose out-of-the-box zero-shot performance on a variety of public datasets comes close to the accuracy of state-of-the-art supervised forecasting models for each individual dataset. Our model is based on pretraining a patched-decoder style attention model on a large time-series corpus, and can work well across different forecasting history lengths, prediction lengths and temporal granularities.

Abhimanyu Das, Weihao Kong, Rajat Sen, Yichen Zhou• 2023

Related benchmarks

TaskDatasetResultRank
Time Series ForecastingETTh1
MSE0.1435
729
Time Series ForecastingETTh2
MSE0.315
561
Time Series ForecastingETTm2
MSE0.32
382
Long-term forecastingETTm1
MSE0.361
375
Long-term forecastingETTh1
MSE0.414
365
Anomaly DetectionSMD--
359
Time Series ForecastingETTh1 (test)
MSE0.425
348
Time Series ForecastingETTm1
MSE0.434
334
Long-term forecastingETTm2
MSE0.202
310
Time Series ForecastingETTm1 (test)
MSE0.332
278
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