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A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecasting

About

Motivated by recent advances in large language models for Natural Language Processing (NLP), we design a time-series foundation model for forecasting whose out-of-the-box zero-shot performance on a variety of public datasets comes close to the accuracy of state-of-the-art supervised forecasting models for each individual dataset. Our model is based on pretraining a patched-decoder style attention model on a large time-series corpus, and can work well across different forecasting history lengths, prediction lengths and temporal granularities.

Abhimanyu Das, Weihao Kong, Rajat Sen, Yichen Zhou• 2023

Related benchmarks

TaskDatasetResultRank
Multivariate ForecastingETTh1
MSE0.702
909
Time Series ForecastingETTh1
MSE0.1435
869
Time Series ForecastingETTh2
MSE0.289
796
Multivariate Time-series ForecastingETTm1
MSE0.447
742
Multivariate Time-series ForecastingETTm2
MSE0.122
593
Time Series ForecastingETTm2
MSE0.17
552
Long-term forecastingETTh1
MSE0.414
500
Time Series ForecastingETTh1 (test)
MSE0.425
482
Multivariate Time-series ForecastingWeather
MSE0.119
466
Long-term forecastingETTm1
MSE0.361
452
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