A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecasting
About
Motivated by recent advances in large language models for Natural Language Processing (NLP), we design a time-series foundation model for forecasting whose out-of-the-box zero-shot performance on a variety of public datasets comes close to the accuracy of state-of-the-art supervised forecasting models for each individual dataset. Our model is based on pretraining a patched-decoder style attention model on a large time-series corpus, and can work well across different forecasting history lengths, prediction lengths and temporal granularities.
Abhimanyu Das, Weihao Kong, Rajat Sen, Yichen Zhou• 2023
Related benchmarks
| Task | Dataset | Result | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multivariate Forecasting | ETTh1 | MSE0.702 | 909 | |
| Time Series Forecasting | ETTh1 | MSE0.1435 | 869 | |
| Time Series Forecasting | ETTh2 | MSE0.289 | 796 | |
| Multivariate Time-series Forecasting | ETTm1 | MSE0.447 | 742 | |
| Multivariate Time-series Forecasting | ETTm2 | MSE0.122 | 593 | |
| Time Series Forecasting | ETTm2 | MSE0.17 | 552 | |
| Long-term forecasting | ETTh1 | MSE0.414 | 500 | |
| Time Series Forecasting | ETTh1 (test) | MSE0.425 | 482 | |
| Multivariate Time-series Forecasting | Weather | MSE0.119 | 466 | |
| Long-term forecasting | ETTm1 | MSE0.361 | 452 |
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