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Efficient Causal Graph Discovery Using Large Language Models

About

We propose a novel framework that leverages LLMs for full causal graph discovery. While previous LLM-based methods have used a pairwise query approach, this requires a quadratic number of queries which quickly becomes impractical for larger causal graphs. In contrast, the proposed framework uses a breadth-first search (BFS) approach which allows it to use only a linear number of queries. We also show that the proposed method can easily incorporate observational data when available, to improve performance. In addition to being more time and data-efficient, the proposed framework achieves state-of-the-art results on real-world causal graphs of varying sizes. The results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method in discovering causal relationships, showcasing its potential for broad applicability in causal graph discovery tasks across different domains.

Thomas Jiralerspong, Xiaoyin Chen, Yash More, Vedant Shah, Yoshua Bengio• 2024

Related benchmarks

TaskDatasetResultRank
Bayesian network structure discoveryAlarm
SHD36.2
26
Bayesian network structure discoveryInsurance
SHD48.4
26
Causal DiscoverySachs real-world data protein signaling network
SHD20
26
Bayesian network structure discoveryHailfinder
SHD243
25
Bayesian network structure discoveryasia
SHD0.00e+0
24
Bayesian network structure discoveryCancer
SHD0.00e+0
24
Bayesian network structure discoveryChild
SHD20.4
24
Bayesian network structure discoverydisputed3
SHD21.6
22
Bayesian network structure discoveryblockchain
SHD29
22
Bayesian network structure discoveryCOVID
SHD74.6
22
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