Is Score Matching Suitable for Estimating Point Processes?
About
Score matching estimators have gained widespread attention in recent years partly because they are free from calculating the integral of normalizing constant, thereby addressing the computational challenges in maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). Some existing works have proposed score matching estimators for point processes. However, this work demonstrates that the incompleteness of the estimators proposed in those works renders them applicable only to specific problems, and they fail for more general point processes. To address this issue, this work introduces the weighted score matching estimator to point processes. Theoretically, we prove the consistency of our estimator and establish its rate of convergence. Experimental results indicate that our estimator accurately estimates model parameters on synthetic data and yields results consistent with MLE on real data. In contrast, existing score matching estimators fail to perform effectively. Codes are publicly available at \url{https://github.com/KenCao2007/WSM_TPP}.
Related benchmarks
| Task | Dataset | Result | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Event Prediction | StackOverflow | ACC46.2 | 58 | |
| Event Prediction | Retweet | -- | 28 | |
| Temporal Point Process modeling | Hawkes1 synthetic (test) | Negative Log-Likelihood-1.552 | 25 | |
| Temporal Point Process modeling | Hawkes2 synthetic (test) | NLL-1.578 | 25 | |
| Univariate Temporal Point Process modeling | Renewal2 synthetic (test) | NLL-1.531 | 14 | |
| Univariate Temporal Point Process modeling | Renewal1 synthetic (test) | NLL-1.599 | 14 | |
| Univariate Temporal Point Process modeling | Self-correcting synthetic (test) | Negative Log-Likelihood (NLL)-1.308 | 14 | |
| Multivariate Temporal Point Process | Taobao | NLL-1.115 | 10 | |
| Multivariate Temporal Point Process | Earthquake | NLL0.235 | 10 | |
| Multivariate Temporal Point Process | Retweet | NLL-0.449 | 10 |