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Is Score Matching Suitable for Estimating Point Processes?

About

Score matching estimators have gained widespread attention in recent years partly because they are free from calculating the integral of normalizing constant, thereby addressing the computational challenges in maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). Some existing works have proposed score matching estimators for point processes. However, this work demonstrates that the incompleteness of the estimators proposed in those works renders them applicable only to specific problems, and they fail for more general point processes. To address this issue, this work introduces the weighted score matching estimator to point processes. Theoretically, we prove the consistency of our estimator and establish its rate of convergence. Experimental results indicate that our estimator accurately estimates model parameters on synthetic data and yields results consistent with MLE on real data. In contrast, existing score matching estimators fail to perform effectively. Codes are publicly available at \url{https://github.com/KenCao2007/WSM_TPP}.

Haoqun Cao, Zizhuo Meng, Tianjun Ke, Feng Zhou• 2024

Related benchmarks

TaskDatasetResultRank
Event PredictionStackOverflow
ACC46.2
58
Event PredictionRetweet--
28
Temporal Point Process modelingHawkes1 synthetic (test)
Negative Log-Likelihood-1.552
25
Temporal Point Process modelingHawkes2 synthetic (test)
NLL-1.578
25
Univariate Temporal Point Process modelingRenewal2 synthetic (test)
NLL-1.531
14
Univariate Temporal Point Process modelingRenewal1 synthetic (test)
NLL-1.599
14
Univariate Temporal Point Process modelingSelf-correcting synthetic (test)
Negative Log-Likelihood (NLL)-1.308
14
Multivariate Temporal Point ProcessTaobao
NLL-1.115
10
Multivariate Temporal Point ProcessEarthquake
NLL0.235
10
Multivariate Temporal Point ProcessRetweet
NLL-0.449
10
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