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LTSM-Bundle: A Toolbox and Benchmark on Large Language Models for Time Series Forecasting

About

Time Series Forecasting (TSF) has long been a challenge in time series analysis. Inspired by the success of Large Language Models (LLMs), researchers are now developing Large Time Series Models (LTSMs)-universal transformer-based models that use autoregressive prediction-to improve TSF. However, training LTSMs on heterogeneous time series data poses unique challenges, including diverse frequencies, dimensions, and patterns across datasets. Recent endeavors have studied and evaluated various design choices aimed at enhancing LTSM training and generalization capabilities. However, these design choices are typically studied and evaluated in isolation and are not benchmarked collectively. In this work, we introduce LTSM-Bundle, a comprehensive toolbox, and benchmark for training LTSMs, spanning pre-processing techniques, model configurations, and dataset configuration. It modularized and benchmarked LTSMs from multiple dimensions, encompassing prompting strategies, tokenization approaches, training paradigms, base model selection, data quantity, and dataset diversity. Furthermore, we combine the most effective design choices identified in our study. Empirical results demonstrate that this combination achieves superior zero-shot and few-shot performances compared to state-of-the-art LTSMs and traditional TSF methods on benchmark datasets.

Yu-Neng Chuang, Songchen Li, Jiayi Yuan, Guanchu Wang, Kwei-Herng Lai, Joshua Han, Zihang Xu, Songyuan Sui, Leisheng Yu, Sirui Ding, Chia-Yuan Chang, Alfredo Costilla Reyes, Daochen Zha, Xia Hu• 2024

Related benchmarks

TaskDatasetResultRank
Time Series ForecastingETTh1
MSE0.307
601
Time Series ForecastingETTh2
MSE0.235
438
Time Series ForecastingETTm2
MSE0.156
382
Time Series ForecastingWeather
MSE0.172
223
Time Series ForecastingElectricity
MSE0.145
77
Time Series ForecastingETTm1
MAE0.416
66
Time Series ForecastingETTh2 -> ETTh1 (test)
MSE0.229
55
Time Series ForecastingETTh1 -> ETTh2
MSE0.319
47
Time Series ForecastingETTh1 -> ETTm2
MSE0.312
41
Long-term time-series forecastingETTm1 to ETTh2
MSE0.306
21
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