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TimeCMA: Towards LLM-Empowered Multivariate Time Series Forecasting via Cross-Modality Alignment

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Multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) aims to learn temporal dynamics among variables to forecast future time series. Existing statistical and deep learning-based methods suffer from limited learnable parameters and small-scale training data. Recently, large language models (LLMs) combining time series with textual prompts have achieved promising performance in MTSF. However, we discovered that current LLM-based solutions fall short in learning disentangled embeddings. We introduce TimeCMA, an intuitive yet effective framework for MTSF via cross-modality alignment. Specifically, we present a dual-modality encoding with two branches: the time series encoding branch extracts disentangled yet weak time series embeddings, and the LLM-empowered encoding branch wraps the same time series with text as prompts to obtain entangled yet robust prompt embeddings. As a result, such a cross-modality alignment retrieves both disentangled and robust time series embeddings, "the best of two worlds", from the prompt embeddings based on time series and prompt modality similarities. As another key design, to reduce the computational costs from time series with their length textual prompts, we design an effective prompt to encourage the most essential temporal information to be encapsulated in the last token: only the last token is passed to downstream prediction. We further store the last token embeddings to accelerate inference speed. Extensive experiments on eight real datasets demonstrate that TimeCMA outperforms state-of-the-arts.

Chenxi Liu, Qianxiong Xu, Hao Miao, Sun Yang, Lingzheng Zhang, Cheng Long, Ziyue Li, Rui Zhao• 2024

Related benchmarks

TaskDatasetResultRank
Multivariate ForecastingETTh1
MSE0.451
686
Multivariate Time-series ForecastingETTm1
MSE0.392
466
Long-term time-series forecastingWeather
MSE0.25
448
Long-term time-series forecastingETTh1
MAE0.419
446
Multivariate Time-series ForecastingETTm2
MSE0.289
389
Multivariate Time-series ForecastingWeather
MSE0.253
340
Multivariate Time-series ForecastingETTh2 (test)
MSE0.372
187
Multivariate Time-series ForecastingExchange
MAE0.446
181
Long-term time-series forecastingECL
MSE0.185
154
Multivariate Time-series ForecastingETTh2
MSE0.407
84
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