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Super-Linear: A Lightweight Pretrained Mixture of Linear Experts for Time Series Forecasting

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Time series forecasting (TSF) is critical in domains like energy, finance, healthcare, and logistics, requiring models that generalize across diverse datasets. Large pre-trained models such as Chronos and Time-MoE show strong zero-shot (ZS) performance but suffer from high computational costs. In this work, we introduce Super-Linear, a lightweight and scalable mixture-of-experts (MoE) model for general forecasting. It replaces deep architectures with simple frequency-specialized linear experts, trained on resampled data across multiple frequency regimes. A lightweight spectral gating mechanism dynamically selects relevant experts, enabling efficient, accurate forecasting. Despite its simplicity, Super-Linear demonstrates strong performance across benchmarks, while substantially improving efficiency, robustness to sampling rates, and interpretability. The implementation of Super-Linear is available at: \href{https://github.com/azencot-group/SuperLinear}{https://github.com/azencot-group/SuperLinear}.

Liran Nochumsohn, Raz Marshanski, Hedi Zisling, Omri Azencot• 2025

Related benchmarks

TaskDatasetResultRank
Time Series ForecastingETTh1--
601
Time Series ForecastingETTh2--
438
Time Series ForecastingETTm2--
382
Time Series ForecastingETTm1
MAE0.389
66
Time Series ForecastingGIFT-Eval (test)
MASE85.7
34
Time Series ForecastingLTSF TSLib (test)
ETTh1 Error0.415
21
Time Series ForecastingElectricity
MAE0.267
8
Time Series ForecastingWeather
MAE0.275
8
Time Series ForecastingLTSF Average
Avg MAE0.343
8
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