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Super-Linear: A Lightweight Pretrained Mixture of Linear Experts for Time Series Forecasting

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Time series forecasting (TSF) is critical in domains like energy, finance, healthcare, and logistics, requiring models that generalize across diverse datasets. Large pre-trained models such as Chronos and Time-MoE show strong zero-shot (ZS) performance but suffer from high computational costs. In this work, we introduce Super-Linear, a lightweight and scalable mixture-of-experts (MoE) model for general forecasting. It replaces deep architectures with simple frequency-specialized linear experts, trained on resampled data across multiple frequency regimes. A lightweight spectral gating mechanism dynamically selects relevant experts, enabling efficient, accurate forecasting. Despite its simplicity, Super-Linear demonstrates strong performance across benchmarks, while substantially improving efficiency, robustness to sampling rates, and interpretability. The implementation of Super-Linear is available at: \href{https://github.com/azencot-group/SuperLinear}{https://github.com/azencot-group/SuperLinear}.

Liran Nochumsohn, Raz Marshanski, Hedi Zisling, Omri Azencot• 2025

Related benchmarks

TaskDatasetResultRank
Time Series ForecastingETTh1
MSE0.369
836
Time Series ForecastingETTh2--
796
Time Series ForecastingETTm2
MSE0.179
536
Long-term time-series forecastingETTh1 (test)
MSE0.364
410
Time Series ForecastingETTh1 (test)
MSE0.364
398
Time Series ForecastingETTh2 (test)
MSE0.346
250
Time Series ForecastingElectricity
MSE0.141
237
Long-term time-series forecastingWeather (test)
MSE0.146
223
Long-term time-series forecastingETTh2 (test)
MSE0.272
216
Time Series ForecastingTraffic
MSE0.414
211
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