Towards Robust Real-World Multivariate Time Series Forecasting: A Unified Framework for Dependency, Asynchrony, and Missingness
About
Real-world time series data are inherently multivariate, often exhibiting complex inter-channel dependencies. Each channel is typically sampled at its own period and is prone to missing values due to various practical and operational constraints. These characteristics pose three fundamental challenges involving channel dependency, sampling asynchrony, and missingness, all of which must be addressed simultaneously to enable robust and reliable forecasting in practical settings. However, existing architectures typically address only parts of these challenges in isolation and still rely on simplifying assumptions, leaving unresolved the combined challenges of asynchronous channel sampling, test-time missing blocks, and intricate inter-channel dependencies. To bridge this gap, we propose ChannelTokenFormer, a Transformer-based forecasting framework with a flexible architecture designed to explicitly capture cross-channel interactions, accommodate channel-wise asynchronous sampling, and effectively handle missing values. Extensive experiments on public benchmark datasets reflecting practical settings, along with one private real-world industrial dataset, demonstrate the superior robustness and accuracy of ChannelTokenFormer under challenging real-world conditions.
Related benchmarks
| Task | Dataset | Result | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasting | ETT1 (test) | CMSE0.415 | 50 | |
| Time Series Forecasting | SolarWind block-wise test-time missingness (test) | CMSE0.336 | 21 | |
| channel-wise asynchronous long-term multivariate forecasting | ETT1 | CMSE0.335 | 18 | |
| channel-wise asynchronous long-term multivariate forecasting | CHS | CMSE0.103 | 16 | |
| Long-term time-series forecasting | ETTh1 conventional (test) | CMSE0.371 | 16 | |
| Channel-wise Asynchronous Forecasting | SolarWind m=0.125 Case 2 (test) | CMSE0.409 | 13 | |
| Channel-wise Asynchronous Forecasting | SolarWind m=0.250 Case 2 (test) | CMSE0.429 | 13 | |
| Channel-wise Asynchronous Forecasting | SolarWind m=0.375 Case 2 (test) | CMSE0.452 | 13 | |
| Channel-wise Asynchronous Forecasting | SolarWind m=0.500 Case 2 (test) | CMSE0.475 | 13 | |
| Multivariate Time-series Forecasting | ETT1 | CMSE0.399 | 12 |