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Kairos: Toward Adaptive and Parameter-Efficient Time Series Foundation Models

About

Inherent temporal heterogeneity, such as varying sampling densities and periodic structures, has posed substantial challenges in zero-shot generalization for Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs). Existing TSFMs predominantly rely on massive parameterization to absorb such heterogeneity, as their static tokenization and positional encoding schemes entangle diverse temporal patterns into a fixed representation space, encouraging memorization rather than adaptation. To address this limitation, we propose Kairos, a flexible and parameter-efficient TSFM that decouples temporal heterogeneity from model capacity through a novel tokenization perspective. Kairos introduces a dynamic patching tokenizer and a mixture-of-size encoding that adapt observational granularity to local information density, enabling fine-grained temporal abstraction without increasing model width or depth. In addition, we design a multi-granularity positional embedding based on dynamic rotary encodings, which conditions on instance-level spectral features and temporal structure induced by dynamic patching tokenization, allowing robust modeling of diverse temporal dependencies. Trained on a novel Predictability-Stratified Time-Series (PreSTS) corpus, Kairos achieves superior zero-shot performance with substantially fewer parameters on two mainstream benchmarks, GIFT-Eval and Time-Series-Library. The project page is at https://foundation-model-research.github.io/Kairos .

Kun Feng, Shaocheng Lan, Yuchen Fang, Wenchao He, Lintao Ma, Xingyu Lu, Kan Ren• 2025

Related benchmarks

TaskDatasetResultRank
Time Series ForecastingGIFT-Eval (test)
MASE74.2
34
Time Series ForecastingGIFT-Eval
MASE0.738
14
Time Series ForecastingTime Series Inference Benchmark Input 2048, Output 96 (test)
Inference Time (s)0.061
10
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