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CauScientist: Teaching LLMs to Respect Data for Causal Discovery

About

Causal discovery is fundamental to scientific understanding and reliable decision-making. Existing approaches face critical limitations: purely data-driven methods suffer from statistical indistinguishability and modeling assumptions, while recent LLM-based methods either ignore statistical evidence or incorporate unverified priors that can mislead result. To this end, we propose CauScientist, a collaborative framework that synergizes LLMs as hypothesis-generating "data scientists" with probabilistic statistics as rigorous "verifiers". CauScientist employs hybrid initialization to select superior starting graphs, iteratively refines structures through LLM-proposed modifications validated by statistical criteria, and maintains error memory to guide efficient search space. Experiments demonstrate that CauScientist substantially outperforms purely data-driven baselines, achieving up to 53.8% F1 score improvement and enhancing recall from 35.0% to 100.0%. Notably, while standalone LLM performance degrades with graph complexity, CauScientist reduces structural hamming distance (SHD) by 44.0% compared to Qwen3-32B on 37-node graphs. Our project page is at https://github.com/OpenCausaLab/CauScientist.

Bo Peng, Sirui Chen, Lei Xu, Chaochao Lu• 2026

Related benchmarks

TaskDatasetResultRank
Causal DiscoveryAlarm (d=37, |E|=46) medium-scale (test)
Precision96.7
20
Causal DiscoveryAsia (d=8, |E|=8) small-scale (test)
Precision100
8
Causal DiscoveryChild d=20, |E|=25 medium-scale (test)
Precision73.9
8
Causal DiscoveryCancer (d=5, |E|=4) small-scale (test)
Precision1
8
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