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Knowledge-Informed Kernel State Reconstruction from Heterogeneous Partial Observations

About

Real-world scientific systems are rarely observed through complete, regularly sampled state trajectories. Instead, measurements are often partial, noisy, and heterogeneous, providing fragmented views of latent dynamical states. We introduce MAAT (Model Aware Approximation of Trajectories), a framework for knowledge-informed Kernel State Reconstruction in partially observed dynamical systems. MAAT formulates reconstruction in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space and incorporates heterogeneous observation operators together with semantic and structural priors, including non-negativity, conservation constraints, and domain-specific measurement models. This yields smooth, physically consistent state estimates with analytic time derivatives, providing a principled interface between fragmented measurements and downstream mechanistic discovery methods such as symbolic regression. Across nine scientific benchmarks, multiple noise regimes, and a real-world COVID-19 dataset, MAAT substantially reduces trajectory and derivative reconstruction error relative to strong baselines.

Luca Muscarnera, Silas Ruhrberg Est\'evez, Samuel Holt, Evgeny Saveliev, Mihaela van der Schaar• 2026

Related benchmarks

TaskDatasetResultRank
Kernel State Reconstructiontmdd lite Student-t noise (test)
Full Test MSE0.003
20
Kernel State Reconstructiontumor Student-t noise (test)
Full Test MSE0.119
20
Kernel State Reconstructiontumordrug Student-t noise (test)
Full Test MSE0.894
20
Kernel State Reconstructioncolorectal Student-t noise (test)
Full Test MSE0.0013
20
State Reconstruction12 different tasks Isotropic Gaussian noise
Geometric Mean State Estimation MSE0.0112
20
State Reconstruction12 different tasks Correlated Gaussian noise
Geometric Mean State MSE0.0114
20
State Reconstruction12 different tasks Student-t heavy-tailed noise
GM State-Est MSE0.0106
20
State Reconstructiontmdd lite Correlated Gaussian noise (test)
MSE0.003
20
State Reconstructiontumor Correlated Gaussian noise (test)
MSE0.118
20
State Reconstructiontumordrug Correlated Gaussian noise (test)
MSE0.87
20
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