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Drift Estimation for Stochastic Differential Equations with Denoising Diffusion Models

About

We study the estimation of time-homogeneous drift functions in multivariate stochastic differential equations with known diffusion coefficient, from multiple trajectories observed at high frequency over a fixed time horizon. We formulate drift estimation as a denoising problem conditional on previous observations, and propose an estimator of the drift function which is a by-product of training a conditional diffusion model capable of simulating new trajectories dynamically. Across different drift classes, the proposed estimator was found to match classical methods in low dimensions and remained consistently competitive in higher dimensions, with gains that cannot be attributed to architectural design choices alone.

Marcos Tapia Costa, Nikolas Kantas, George Deligiannidis• 2026

Related benchmarks

TaskDatasetResultRank
Drift Estimationmu4 Bistable Drift (out-of-sample)
E_201.546
20
Drift EstimationLorenz 96 mu5 (out-of-sample)
OOS Drift Error (E_20^mu)8.718
20
Drift Estimationμ2 drift function
In-sample Drift Error E10.0187
4
Drift Estimationμ1 drift function
In-sample Drift Error E_10.0213
4
Drift Estimationμ3 drift function
Drift Error E_10.0075
4
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