DataProphet: Demystifying Supervision Data Generalization in Multimodal LLMs

Conventional wisdom for selecting supervision data for multimodal large language models (MLLMs) is to prioritize datasets that appear similar to the target benchmark, such as text-intensive or vision-centric tasks. However, it remains unclear whether such intuitive similarity reliably predicts downstream performance gains. In this work, we take a first step toward answering a practical question: can we estimate the influence of a training dataset on a target benchmark before any training is performed? To investigate this question, we conduct an in-depth analysis of transfer across 14 vision-language datasets spanning 7 diverse tasks. Our results show that intuitive task similarity is an unreliable predictor of transferability, and that generalization depends more on the specific dataset than on its broad task category. Motivated by this finding, we propose DATAPROPHET, a simple and effective training-free metric that combines multimodal perplexity, similarity, and data diversity. Experiments show that DATAPROPHET produces supervision-data rankings that strongly correlate with rankings based on actual post-training performance gains, achieving a Kendall's tau of 86.0%. Moreover, DATAPROPHET enables better supervision-data selection, yielding up to 6.9% improvement over uniform selection, 1.4% over a state-of-the-art training-based baseline, and 0.2% above oracle selection based on experimental performance. Our code and data will be released.