Meteorology-Driven GPT4AP: A Multi-Task Forecasting LLM for Atmospheric Air Pollution in Data-Scarce Settings
About
Accurate forecasting of air pollution is important for environmental monitoring and policy support, yet data-driven models often suffer from limited generalization in regions with sparse observations. This paper presents Meteorology-Driven GPT for Air Pollution (GPT4AP), a parameter-efficient multi-task forecasting framework based on a pre-trained GPT-2 backbone and Gaussian rank-stabilized low-rank adaptation (rsLoRA). The model freezes the self-attention and feed-forward layers and adapts lightweight positional and output modules, substantially reducing the number of trainable parameters. GPT4AP is evaluated on six real-world air quality monitoring datasets under few-shot, zero-shot, and long-term forecasting settings. In the few-shot regime using 10% of the training data, GPT4AP achieves an average MSE/MAE of 0.686/0.442, outperforming DLinear (0.728/0.530) and ETSformer (0.734/0.505). In zero-shot cross-station transfer, the proposed model attains an average MSE/MAE of 0.529/0.403, demonstrating improved generalization compared with existing baselines. In long-term forecasting with full training data, GPT4AP remains competitive, achieving an average MAE of 0.429, while specialized time-series models show slightly lower errors. These results indicate that GPT4AP provides a data-efficient forecasting approach that performs robustly under limited supervision and domain shift, while maintaining competitive accuracy in data-rich settings.
Related benchmarks
| Task | Dataset | Result | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long-term forecasting | DS -> AZ | MSE0.42 | 35 | |
| Long-term forecasting | TT -> AZ | MSE0.45 | 35 | |
| Long-term forecasting | AZ -> DS (test) | MSE0.455 | 35 | |
| Long-term forecasting | AZ -> TT | MSE0.484 | 35 | |
| Long-term forecasting | TT -> DS | MSE0.477 | 35 | |
| Long-term forecasting | DS -> TT | MSE0.489 | 35 | |
| Long-term forecasting | WX (Wanshou) (test) | MSE0.588 | 35 | |
| Long-term forecasting | AZ (Aotizhongxin) (test) | MSE0.53 | 35 | |
| Long-term forecasting | DS (Dongsi) (test) | MSE0.636 | 35 | |
| Long-term forecasting | TT (Tiantan) (test) | MSE0.632 | 35 |