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Meteorology-Driven GPT4AP: A Multi-Task Forecasting LLM for Atmospheric Air Pollution in Data-Scarce Settings

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Accurate forecasting of air pollution is important for environmental monitoring and policy support, yet data-driven models often suffer from limited generalization in regions with sparse observations. This paper presents Meteorology-Driven GPT for Air Pollution (GPT4AP), a parameter-efficient multi-task forecasting framework based on a pre-trained GPT-2 backbone and Gaussian rank-stabilized low-rank adaptation (rsLoRA). The model freezes the self-attention and feed-forward layers and adapts lightweight positional and output modules, substantially reducing the number of trainable parameters. GPT4AP is evaluated on six real-world air quality monitoring datasets under few-shot, zero-shot, and long-term forecasting settings. In the few-shot regime using 10% of the training data, GPT4AP achieves an average MSE/MAE of 0.686/0.442, outperforming DLinear (0.728/0.530) and ETSformer (0.734/0.505). In zero-shot cross-station transfer, the proposed model attains an average MSE/MAE of 0.529/0.403, demonstrating improved generalization compared with existing baselines. In long-term forecasting with full training data, GPT4AP remains competitive, achieving an average MAE of 0.429, while specialized time-series models show slightly lower errors. These results indicate that GPT4AP provides a data-efficient forecasting approach that performs robustly under limited supervision and domain shift, while maintaining competitive accuracy in data-rich settings.

Prasanjit Dey, Soumyabrata Dev, Bianca Schoen-Phelan• 2026

Related benchmarks

TaskDatasetResultRank
Long-term forecastingDS -> AZ
MSE0.42
35
Long-term forecastingTT -> AZ
MSE0.45
35
Long-term forecastingAZ -> DS (test)
MSE0.455
35
Long-term forecastingAZ -> TT
MSE0.484
35
Long-term forecastingTT -> DS
MSE0.477
35
Long-term forecastingDS -> TT
MSE0.489
35
Long-term forecastingWX (Wanshou) (test)
MSE0.588
35
Long-term forecastingAZ (Aotizhongxin) (test)
MSE0.53
35
Long-term forecastingDS (Dongsi) (test)
MSE0.636
35
Long-term forecastingTT (Tiantan) (test)
MSE0.632
35
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