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Dynamic Linear Coregionalization for Realistic Synthetic Multivariate Time Series

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Synthetic data is essential for training foundation models for time series (FMTS), but most generators assume static correlations, and are typically missing realistic inter-channel dependencies. We introduce DynLMC, a Dynamic Linear Model of Coregionalization, that incorporates time-varying, regime-switching correlations and cross-channel lag structures. Our approach produces synthetic multivariate time series with correlation dynamics that closely resemble real data. Fine-tuning three foundational models on DynLMC-generated data yields consistent zero-shot forecasting improvements across nine benchmarks. Our results demonstrate that modeling dynamic inter-channel correlations enhances FMTS transferability, highlighting the importance of data-centric pretraining.

Annita Vapsi, Penghang Liu, Saheed Obitayo, Aakriti, Manoj Cherukumalli, Prathamesh Patil, Amit Varshney, Nicolas Marchesotti, Elizabeth Fons, Vamsi K. Potluru, Manuela Veloso• 2026

Related benchmarks

TaskDatasetResultRank
Time Series ForecastingECL--
211
ForecastingTraffic--
68
Time Series ForecastingETTh2
MAE0.336
30
Forecastingsolar
MAE0.343
28
ForecastingWeather
MAE0.23
26
Time Series ForecastingETTm1
MAE0.4
22
ForecastingETTh1
MAE0.397
18
ForecastingETTm2
MAE0.264
18
ForecastingExchange
MAE0.209
18
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