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MEMOA: Massive Mixtures of Online Agents via Mean-Field Decentralized Nash Equilibria

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In the modern age of large-scale AI, federated learning has become an increasingly important tool for training large populations of AI agents; however, its computational and communication costs can rapidly fail to scale with the number of agents. This is precisely where decentralized agentic strategies shine: each agent acts autonomously, using only its own state together with a minimal summary of the ensemble, namely the mean-field. We derive the unique optimal decentralized policy in closed form. Optimality is characterized through a worst-client/minimax criterion: minimizing the under-performer regret, namely the maximal online cost incurred by the weakest agent in the ensemble. We further prove that the resulting decentralized policy asymptotically converges, in the large-population limit, to the Nash-optimal centralized policy, whose direct computation is not scalable. We use an online weighting mechanism to optimize the server-computed mixture of client predictions, thereby improving the mean prediction in addition to the previously optimized weakest-client prediction. Numerical experiments verify our theoretical guarantees and demonstrate that our decentralized policy typically outperforms natural greedy decentralized baselines.

Xuwei Yang, David B. Emerson, Fatemeh Tavakoli, Anastasis Kratsios• 2026

Related benchmarks

TaskDatasetResultRank
Time-series predictionETT
RMSE0.0263
29
Time-series predictionLogistic
Average RMSE0.1883
20
Time-series predictionBoC
Average RMSE0.0067
20
Time-series predictionBoC (val)
Average RMSE0.0049
20
Time-series predictionPeriodic
Average RMSE0.9171
20
Time-series predictionETT (val)
Average RMSE0.0514
20
Time-series predictionConcept
Average RMSE0.247
12
Time-series predictionConcept Drift
Average RMSE0.32
8
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