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Perceive, Route and Modulate: Dynamic Pattern Recalibration for Time Series Forecasting

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Local temporal patterns in real-world time series continuously shift, rendering globally shared transformations suboptimal. Current deep forecasting models, despite their scale and complexity, rely on fixed weight matrices applied uniformly to all temporal tokens. This creates a static pattern response: models settle into a compromised average, unable to adapt to changing local dynamics. We introduce Dynamic Pattern Recalibration (DPR), a backbone-agnostic mechanism that resolves this via token-level recalibration. Through a lightweight "Perceive-Route-Modulate" pipeline, DPR computes a soft-routing distribution over a learned basis of adaptive response patterns, generating a time-aware modulation vector that recalibrates hidden states via a residual Hadamard product. As a backbone-agnostic adapter, DPR enhances forecasting across diverse architectures with minimal overhead, confirming it addresses a general bottleneck. As a minimalist standalone model, DPRNet achieves competitive performance across 12 benchmarks, validating dynamic recalibration against macroscopic parameter scaling.

Siru Zhong, Zhao Meng, Haohuan Fu, Haoyang Li, Qingsong Wen, Yuxuan Liang• 2026

Related benchmarks

TaskDatasetResultRank
Time Series ForecastingETTh2
MSE0.379
796
Time Series ForecastingWeather
MSE0.253
497
Time Series ForecastingETTm2
MSE0.282
300
Time Series ForecastingILI
MAE1.088
141
Time Series ForecastingExchange
MSE0.44
98
ForecastingCovid19
MAE0.366
29
Time Series ForecastingBeijing Air Quality
MAE0.424
15
Univariate Time Series ForecastingSunspot
MSE0.743
14
Time Series ForecastingVIX
MSE1.108
9
Time Series ForecastingNABCPU
MSE1.192
9
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