A Scalable Nonparametric Continuous-Time Survival Model through Numerical Quadrature
About
Flexible continuous-time survival modeling is critical for capturing complex time-varying hazard dynamics in high-dimensional data; however, training such models remains challenging due to the intractable integral required for likelihood estimation. We introduce QSurv, a scalable deep learning framework that enables nonparametric continuous-time modeling without relying on time discretization or restrictive distributional assumptions. We propose a training objective based on Gauss-Legendre numerical quadrature, which approximates the cumulative hazard with high-order accuracy while facilitating efficient end-to-end training via standard backpropagation. Furthermore, to effectively capture non-stationary hazard dynamics in complex architectures, we introduce time-conditioned low-rank adaptation, a mechanism that conditions general neural backbones on time by dynamically modulating weights via low-rank updates. We provide theoretical analysis establishing approximation error bounds for cumulative-hazard evaluation. Comprehensive experiments across synthetic benchmarks, large-scale real-world tabular datasets, and high-dimensional medical imaging tasks demonstrate that QSurv achieves competitive predictive performance with advantages in instantaneous hazard function estimation, enabling more interpretable characterization of time-varying risk patterns.
Related benchmarks
| Task | Dataset | Result | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Survival Prediction | FLCHAIN | -- | 26 | |
| Survival Analysis | METABRIC | D-Calibration Score0.358 | 17 | |
| Survival Analysis | NWTCO | -- | 10 | |
| Survival Analysis | COVID-19 NY | Ctd (Full)74.56 | 8 | |
| Survival Analysis | BraTS | Ctd (Full)0.5811 | 8 | |
| Survival Analysis | C4KC-KiTS | Ctd (Full)0.6381 | 8 | |
| Instantaneous hazard estimation | Simulation Study Gompertz (test) | L1 Error0.0258 | 7 | |
| Instantaneous hazard estimation | Simulation Study Log-normal (test) | L1 Error0.0457 | 7 | |
| Instantaneous hazard estimation | Simulation Study Log-logistic (test) | L1 Error0.0491 | 7 | |
| Instantaneous hazard estimation | Simulation Study Exponential (test) | L1 Error0.0352 | 7 |