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Olivia: Harmonizing Time Series Foundation Models with Power Spectral Density

About

Time series foundation models rely on large-scale pretraining over diverse datasets across domains, yet their heterogeneity in temporal patterns could hinder the effectiveness of training and learning transferable time series representations. Inspired a fundamental concept, normalized power spectral density (PSD) in signal processing, we assume harmonizing datasets via PSDs in the spectral domain could reduce mismatches and enhance pretraining. We then go beyond the direct intractable minimization optimization and innovatively reformulate it as a principled harmonization approach. Specifically, we propose Harmonizer, a module that reshapes spectral structures and implicitly harmonizing PSDs across datasets, which theoretically corresponds to a shared reparameterization of second-order temporal correlations. Our theoretical analysis further reveals token interactions with Harmonizer can be efficiently mediated by a compact set of resonators, motivating a HarmonicAttention design that performs self-attention in a low-dimensional interaction space. Then, we propose Olivia, a novel time series foundation model built upon these harmonization mechanisms. Extensive experiments on two large-scale benchmarks (TSLib and GIFT-Eval) and extra 6 datasets from GluonTS, demonstrate Olivia consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance under zero-shot, few-shot, and full-shot forecasting scenarios. Our code is available at https://github.com/TSTS13/Olivia.

Jingru Fei, Kun Yi, Alex Xing Wang, Qingsong Wen, Xiangxiang Zhu, Wei Fan• 2026

Related benchmarks

TaskDatasetResultRank
Time Series ForecastingETTh2
MSE0.274
796
Time Series ForecastingWeather
MSE0.143
497
Time Series ForecastingETTm2
MSE0.155
300
Time Series ForecastingElectricity
MSE0.158
237
Time Series ForecastingTraffic
MSE0.35
211
Time Series ForecastingETTh1 (10% train)
MSE0.398
36
Time Series ForecastingWeather (10% train)
MSE0.227
32
Time Series ForecastingElectricity 10% (train)
MSE0.156
32
Time Series ForecastingTraffic (10% train)
MSE0.409
32
Time Series ForecastingETTh2 (10% train)
MSE0.337
32
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