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Beyond Extrapolation: Knowledge Utilization Paradigm with Bidirectional Inspiration for Time Series Forecasting

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Time-series forecasting is critical in various scenarios, such as energy, transportation, and public health. However, most existing forecasters rely primarily on one-way inference, \textit{i.e.}, mapping \textbf{history} to \textbf{target}, and overlook the structural information provided by a revised natural chain (``\textbf{history} (model input) -- \textbf{target} (ground-truth output) -- \textbf{post-target continuation}''). The post-target continuation records how trajectories evolve after the target, which can help stabilize forecasting, but it is not observable at inference time. In this work, we aim to obtain an approximate proxy of the post-target continuation for the current input, providing structural knowledge for bidirectional forecasting. This idea is instantiated as KUP-BI (Knowledge Utilization Paradigm with Bidirectional Inspiration), a new time-series modeling paradigm that distills continuation-style knowledge (as an approximate post-target continuation proxy) from a \emph{train-only} historical library and integrates it into standard forecasting backbones. The input stream and the continuation-proxy stream are fused via a lightweight feature-level gating module. This design does not introduce information beyond what is already contained in the training trajectories; instead, it provides a structured inductive bias that helps backbones exploit typical continuation patterns rather than relying solely on parametric extrapolation. Experimental results on six public datasets show that KUP-BI consistently improves the forecasting performance of state-of-the-art models, with small additional overhead.

Liu Chong, Yingjie Zhou, Hao Li, Pengyang Wang, Qingsong Wen, Ce Zhu• 2026

Related benchmarks

TaskDatasetResultRank
Multivariate long-term forecastingETTh1
MSE0.409
472
Multivariate long-term series forecastingETTh2
MSE0.326
445
Multivariate long-term series forecastingETTm1
MSE0.35
383
Multivariate long-term series forecastingETTm2
MSE0.25
301
Multivariate long-term series forecastingExchange
MSE0.313
156
Multivariate long-term forecastingILI
MSE1.365
60
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