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Time Series Causal Discovery via Context-Conditioned and Causality-Augmented Pretraining

About

Causal discovery from time series is critical for many real-world applications, such as tracing the root causes of anomalies. Existing approaches typically rely on dataset-specific optimization, making it difficult to transfer their causal discovery capabilities to new time series governed by diverse causal mechanisms. In this paper, we propose \textbf{PTCD}, a novel \textbf{P}retraining framework for \textbf{T}ime-series \textbf{C}ausal \textbf{D}iscovery, which improves cross-task generalization through context-conditioned modeling and transferable causal augmentation. To model complex temporal causal dependencies, PTCD employs a dual-scale iterative attention mechanism to capture window-level causal relationships, and a Gaussian mixture with a context-level routing mechanism to handle heterogeneous exogenous distributions. To further address distribution shifts across causal graphs, PTCD adopts a pretraining paradigm on synthetic datasets that integrates intervention-based learning and a causal mixup strategy, promoting stable causal discovery and stronger generalization. Extensive experiments on multiple real-world out-of-distribution (OOD) datasets demonstrate that PTCD excels in both causal discovery and root cause identification.

Biao Ouyang, Tengxue Zhang, Zhihao Zhuang, Yang Shu, Chenjuan Guo, Bin Yang• 2026

Related benchmarks

TaskDatasetResultRank
Root Cause IdentificationMSDS
Top@3R99.3
13
Causal DiscoveryEastern Germany river dataset
Close (k=3)84
10
Root Cause IdentificationSWaT
Recall@130
5
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