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Beyond Differences: Doubly Robust Meta-Learners for Ratio-Based Treatment Effects

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When treatment effects are naturally expressed as ratios -- as in medicine, pricing, and marketing -- the ratio-based CATE $\tau(x) = E[Y|W=1,X=x] / E[Y|W=0,X=x]$ is the appropriate estimand. Yet existing estimators either impose a log-linear parametric structure or apply generic regression without robustness guarantees for this functional. We introduce the Q-Learner, which decomposes $\tau(x)$ into a product of two odds ratios, reducing ratio-CATE estimation for binary outcomes to two propensity classification tasks. We further derive doubly robust augmentations for both S/T- and Q-style ratio learners and characterize their distinct robustness properties. In benchmarks on seven RCT datasets, the Q-Learner is the most consistently competitive method in low-conversion regimes, where its propensity-only construction sidesteps the imbalanced regression that hurts outcome-based estimators. On four observational datasets, where propensity must be estimated and confounding cannot be ruled out, the DR learners introduced here decisively come out on top, making them practitioners' natural default for confounded observational data.

Michael Fuchs, Dominik Kreiss• 2026

Related benchmarks

TaskDatasetResultRank
Conditional Average Treatment Effect estimationH(Conv) RCT
Multiplicative Calibration Error2.143
15
Conditional Average Treatment Effect estimationTwins RCT
Multiplicative Calibration Error1.372
15
Conditional Average Treatment Effect estimationCriteo RCT
Multiplicative Calibration Error1.044
15
Uplift ModelingH Conv
Qini Coefficient0.571
15
Uplift ModelingTWINS
Qini Coefficient0.092
15
Uplift ModelingLenta
Qini Coefficient0.089
15
Uplift ModelingX5
Qini Coefficient0.077
15
Conditional Average Treatment Effect estimationMegaFon RCT
Multiplicative Calibration Error1.118
15
Uplift ModelingCriteo
Qini Coefficient67.1
15
Uplift ModelingH Vis
Qini Coefficient0.426
15
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