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Lost in the Non-convex Loss Landscape: How to Fine-tune the Large Time Series Model?

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Recently, large time series models (LTSMs) have gained increasing attention due to their similarities to large language models, including flexible context length, scalability, and task generality, outperforming advanced task-specific models. However, prior studies indicate that pre-trained LTSMs may exhibit a poorly conditioned non-convex loss landscape, leading to limited trainability. As a result, direct fine-tuning tends to cause overfitting and suboptimal performance, sometimes even worse than training from scratch, substantially diminishing the benefits of pre-training. To overcome this limitation, we propose Smoothed Full Fine-tuning (SFF), a novel fine-tuning technology. Specifically, we construct an auxiliary LTSM via random initialization to obtain a smoother loss landscape, and then linearly interpolate its weights with those of the pre-trained model to smooth the original landscape. This process improves trainability while preserving pre-trained knowledge, thereby enabling more effective downstream fine-tuning. From an optimization perspective, SFF perturbs sharp minima without significantly harming flat regions, facilitating escape from poor local basins toward smoother and more generalizable solutions. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate consistent improvements across eight representative LTSMs, including Timer, TimesFM, MOMENT, UniTS, MOIRAI, Chronos, TTMs, and Sundial, on diverse downstream tasks. The code is available at the link: https://github.com/Meteor-Stars/SFF.

Xu Zhang, Peang Wang, Wei Wang• 2026

Related benchmarks

TaskDatasetResultRank
Time Series ForecastingETTm2
MSE0.356
552
Time Series ForecastingETTh1 (test)
MSE0.3493
482
Time Series ForecastingETTm1 (test)
MSE0.2954
427
Time Series ForecastingWeather (test)
MSE0.144
355
Time Series ForecastingTraffic (test)
MSE0.3478
334
Time Series ForecastingETTh2 (test)
MSE0.271
314
Time Series ForecastingETTm2 (test)
MSE0.1594
298
Time Series ForecastingElectricity (test)
MSE0.13
237
Time Series ForecastingETTh1
MSE0.367
145
Time Series ForecastingExchange
MSE0.08
114
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