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Once-for-All: Scalable Simultaneous Forecasting via Equilibrium State Estimation

About

We introduce Equilibrium State Estimation (ESE), a novel paradigm for simultaneous prediction, where multiple interacting systems require separate yet coordinated forecasts. Such scenarios often arise in real-world settings such as economics and healthcare modeling. Unlike existing approaches that predict one system at a time, ESE forecasts all systems in a single pass. It first estimates the equilibrium state across systems, then generates holistic forecasts based on the difference between the current state and the estimated equilibrium. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets, including currency exchange and COVID-19 spread modeling, demonstrate that ESE is at least as accurate as state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods while being significantly faster. In addition, ESE integrates seamlessly with conventional predictors, combining their accuracy with its exceptional efficiency and delivering a 10-70x speedup. With linear-time complexity, ESE scales far better than SOTA methods as the number of systems increases. Moreover, it remains accurate under diverse perturbations, establishing ESE as a fast, generalizable, robust, and scalable multi-prediction method.

Beinan Xu, Andy Song, Jiti Gao, Feng Liu• 2026

Related benchmarks

TaskDatasetResultRank
Equilibrium State EstimationCOVID-19
Computational Cost (20 Regions)0.18
132
Time Series ForecastingCOVID-19 20 Regions
RMSE15.86
104
Equilibrium State EstimationSynthetic Data
Cost (5 Systems, mins)0.04
39
Time-series predictionSynthetic Data 5 systems
RMSE0.24
39
Equilibrium State EstimationCOVID-19 (79 regions)
RMSE50.99
29
Currency exchange rate prediction16 currencies relative to the USD 100 input steps, 1-step horizon Jan. 1, 2022, to Sep. 16, 2022
RMSE5.461
26
State estimationCOVID-19 20 Regions
RMSE70.01
26
State estimationCOVID-19 320 Suburbs
RMSE4.36
26
Time Series ForecastingExchange Rate Input Length 20
RMSE (H=1)6.42
26
Time Series ForecastingExchange Rate Input Length 50
RMSE (H=1)6.11
26
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