UC-Search: Risk-Aware Test-Time Search for Delayed Constrained Time-Series Control
About
Time-series deployments often need delayed feasible decisions, not only accurate forecasts. UC-Search is a trace-only retained-search layer for delayed constrained control: a frozen backbone emits forecasts or action scores, a hard-feasibility automaton rolls paths forward, and bounded search returns the first action of a feasible trajectory. The main claim is conditional: retained lookahead can improve delayed constrained decisions only when delayed feasible-set coupling, retained-prefix premises, and fail-closed release certificates hold. The promoted public endpoint is Phase128 certified M4 expanded40: validation selects Certificate-Constrained Retained Pareto Beam with $\lambda=0.25$, the held-out test has certificate/risk-active rates $1.0000/0.9642$, and the weakest family remains above the unchanged $0.95$ gate at $0.9516$ on M4Weekly. The author-defined public $9$-family suite remains an uncertified stress-test boundary. The paper reports a trace-only mechanism, one certified public endpoint, failed-route certificates, and deployment boundaries rather than a universal risk-control theorem.
Related benchmarks
| Task | Dataset | Result | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Decision Making | Synthetic smoke five seeds (test) | Reward25.0009 | 7 | |
| Time-series decision-making | ETT public decision suite (test) | Reward111.1 | 7 | |
| Inventory control | Weather | Reward20.0634 | 2 | |
| Inventory control | Electricity | Reward83.9751 | 2 |