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Understanding Rollout Error in Graph World Models

About

World models are increasingly used for planning, yet most analyses of rollout error assume vector-valued states and scalar error amplification. Many planning environments, however, are naturally graph-structured: agents, tools, skills, routes, and dependencies interact through evolving relations. In this work, we study how prediction errors accumulate in Graph World Models (GWMs). We formulate fixed-edge and dynamic-edge GWM rollouts under a unified state-action transition framework and derive topology-aware error bounds. For fixed-edge rollouts, we show that long-horizon node error separates into a topology factor, governed by the graph spectral radius, and a model factor, governed by layer spectral norms. For dynamic-edge rollouts, we introduce a joint node-edge error operator that captures feedback between feature prediction and structure prediction, revealing when edge errors amplify future message passing. Motivated by these bounds, we propose Error-Aware GWM, a training objective that combines spectral regularization, rollout consistency, and critical-node weighting. Across synthetic graph topologies and heterogeneous agent-graph testbeds, we find that rollout error and planning regret grow with horizon, that dynamic-edge training is necessary when structure evolves, and that Error-Aware GWM improves long-horizon stability without sacrificing one-step accuracy. Our results characterize when graph world models remain reliable under autoregressive planning and when topology makes them fail.

Xinyuan Song, Zekun Cai• 2026

Related benchmarks

TaskDatasetResultRank
Node ClassificationCiteseer (test)
Accuracy0.669
1013
Node ClassificationCora (test)
Accuracy75
64
Temporal Link PredictionBitcoin-Alpha (test)
AP82
5
Agent Task CompletionAgent calling-tree and platform skill-graph testbeds
Success Rate @ 149.1
4
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