Understanding Rollout Error in Graph World Models
About
World models are increasingly used for planning, yet most analyses of rollout error assume vector-valued states and scalar error amplification. Many planning environments, however, are naturally graph-structured: agents, tools, skills, routes, and dependencies interact through evolving relations. In this work, we study how prediction errors accumulate in Graph World Models (GWMs). We formulate fixed-edge and dynamic-edge GWM rollouts under a unified state-action transition framework and derive topology-aware error bounds. For fixed-edge rollouts, we show that long-horizon node error separates into a topology factor, governed by the graph spectral radius, and a model factor, governed by layer spectral norms. For dynamic-edge rollouts, we introduce a joint node-edge error operator that captures feedback between feature prediction and structure prediction, revealing when edge errors amplify future message passing. Motivated by these bounds, we propose Error-Aware GWM, a training objective that combines spectral regularization, rollout consistency, and critical-node weighting. Across synthetic graph topologies and heterogeneous agent-graph testbeds, we find that rollout error and planning regret grow with horizon, that dynamic-edge training is necessary when structure evolves, and that Error-Aware GWM improves long-horizon stability without sacrificing one-step accuracy. Our results characterize when graph world models remain reliable under autoregressive planning and when topology makes them fail.
Related benchmarks
| Task | Dataset | Result | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Node Classification | Citeseer (test) | Accuracy0.669 | 1013 | |
| Node Classification | Cora (test) | Accuracy75 | 64 | |
| Temporal Link Prediction | Bitcoin-Alpha (test) | AP82 | 5 | |
| Agent Task Completion | Agent calling-tree and platform skill-graph testbeds | Success Rate @ 149.1 | 4 |