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UniWind: Toward Unified Day-Ahead Wind Power Forecasting via Physics-Informed State Routing

About

Day-ahead wind power forecasting is essential for cost-effective power-system operation. It is primarily driven by future meteorological conditions while retaining temporal dependencies in power generation. In practice, observed wind-farm power often entangles physically available power with local environmental effects and latent operational states, such as shutdowns and curtailment. Existing physical models provide useful constraints but adapt poorly across wind farms, whereas data-driven models can capture rich correlations but often conflate meteorological effects with state-induced deviations. In this study, we propose UniWind, a wind power forecasting model based on physics-informed state routing. UniWind first employs a Physical Prior Estimator to construct a site-calibrated physical prior by combining site-conditioned monotonic warping with a shared physical power curve. It further applies a physical upper-bound constraint to shape this prior as a soft envelope of available wind power generation. UniWind then proposes a Latent State Encoder to model operating-state embeddings and transforms the physical prior into final power forecasts through a State-aware Power Corrector, which uses knowledge-guided supervised state routing and bounded, state-specific expert correction. Full-shot and cross-farm zero-shot experiments on more than 20 real-world datasets demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of UniWind.

Ronghui Xu, Tongxin Wu, Guozhen Zhang, Yihan Li, Chenjuan Guo, Bin Yang, Yong Li• 2026

Related benchmarks

TaskDatasetResultRank
Wind power forecastingSX A
MAE10.2
16
Wind power forecastingAH_A
MAE12.66
16
Wind power forecastingUK_Penmanshiel
MAE3.51
16
End-to-end predictionSD
NMAE9.92
11
End-to-end predictionSX
NMAE12.8
11
End-to-end predictionAH
NMAE10.39
11
End-to-end predictionUK
NMAE16.14
11
Wind power forecastingSD_A
Parameters (M)4
4
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