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Epidemic Forecasting on USA ILI 13-week horizon
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41.56
SMAPE
STEN
39.7728
51.8364
63.9
75.9636
Mar 7, 2026
SMAPE
MAE
RMSE
MASE
RMSSE
Pinball Loss (q=0.80)
Pinball Loss (q=0.95)
Risk Score (q=0.50)
Risk Score (q=0.90)
CRPS
Winkler Score
Updated 1mo ago
Evaluation Results
Method
Method
Links
SMAPE
MAE
RMSE
MASE
RMSSE
Pinball Loss (q=0.80)
Pinball Loss (q=0.95)
Risk Score (q=0.50)
Risk Score (q=0.90)
CRPS
Winkler Score
STEN
Model Category=ST-Engr...
2026.03
41.56
65.88
119.07
1.75
1.14
29.33
18.96
23
16
53.17
1,039.84
LSTM
Model Category=Tempora...
2026.03
41.72
73.2
149.72
1.95
1.44
42.27
45.1
26
31
73.2
-
NHiTS
Model Category=Tempora...
2026.03
50.84
102.91
118.53
2.69
1.84
56.45
58.94
36
41
102.91
-
DeepAR
Model Category=Probabi...
2026.03
86.24
173.18
361.28
4.61
3.47
113
105.51
60
78
151.28
4,138.05
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