Polymarket
Benchmarks
| Task Name | Dataset Name | SOTA Result | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability Forecasting | Polymarket 30% held-out evaluation cliques | Brier Score0.1409 | 20 | |
| Forecasting | Polymarket official (test) | Score64.99 | 15 | |
| Judgmental event forecasting | Polymarket (val) | NCE Loss0.305 | 7 |
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