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Judgmental event forecasting on Polymarket (val)
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0.305
NCE Loss
Qwen 3B
0.25076
0.61688
0.983
1.34912
Jun 14, 2026
NCE Loss
Updated 1mo ago
Evaluation Results
Method
Method
Links
NCE Loss
Qwen 3B
Training stage=End, Po...
2026.06
0.305
Qwen 7B
Training stage=End, Po...
2026.06
0.406
Qwen 1.5B
Training stage=End, Po...
2026.06
0.415
Claude 3.5 Sonnet
Reference model compar...
2026.06
0.62
Qwen 3B
Training stage=Start,...
2026.06
0.975
Qwen 7B
Training stage=Start,...
2026.06
0.995
Qwen 1.5B
Training stage=Start,...
2026.06
1.661
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