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Outcome prediction on Lichess April 2026 (held-out slice)
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0.1837
Brier Score
ChessMimic winner
0.1799
0.20555
0.2312
0.25685
Jun 3, 2026
Brier Score
Log Loss
AUC
Updated 1mo ago
Evaluation Results
Method
Method
Links
Brier Score
Log Loss
AUC
ChessMimic winner
2026.06
0.1837
0.5647
0.7768
Draw-aware multinomial (W/D/L)
Features=Win/Draw/Loss...
2026.06
0.207
0.6231
0.7074
Material + rating + clock logistic
Features=Material, Rat...
2026.06
0.2084
0.6265
0.7014
Rating + clock logistic
Features=Rating, Clock
2026.06
0.2281
0.6707
0.6192
Maia-2
Calibration=isotonic-r...
2026.06
0.2372
0.6892
0.5127
Rating-only Elo expectation
Features=Rating only
2026.06
0.2374
0.6905
0.555
Maia-2
Calibration=raw
2026.06
0.2787
0.8501
0.5012
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