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Win Prediction on Lichess Blitz April 2026 (held-out slice)
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92.3
Predicted Expected Score
ChessMimic
5.148
27.774
50.4
73.026
Jun 3, 2026
Predicted Expected Score
Empirical Expected Score
Updated 1mo ago
Evaluation Results
Method
Method
Links
Predicted Expected Score
Empirical Expected Score
ChessMimic
Decile=10, n=477,503
2026.06
92.3
93.2
Maia-2
Decile=10, n=477,503
2026.06
88.2
54.8
ChessMimic
Decile=7, n=477,503
2026.06
56.4
57.1
Maia-2
Decile=7, n=477,503
2026.06
56.3
49.6
Maia-2
Decile=5, n=477,503
2026.06
49.9
49.8
ChessMimic
Decile=5, n=477,503
2026.06
48.1
48.1
Maia-2
Decile=3, n=477,504
2026.06
41.4
49.2
ChessMimic
Decile=3, n=477,504
2026.06
37.4
36.7
Maia-2
Decile=1, n=477,504
2026.06
12.9
54.3
ChessMimic
Decile=1, n=477,504
2026.06
8.5
8
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