Probability Forecasting on Polymarket 30% held-out evaluation cliques
0.1409Brier Score
hierarchical JCD
Updated 1mo ago
Evaluation Results
| Method | Links | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
2026.05 | 0.1409 | -0.0142 | - | |
2026.05 | 0.1423 | - | - | |
2026.05 | 0.1435 | - | -0.0115 | |
2026.05 | 0.1492 | - | - | |
2026.05 | 0.1551 | - | - | |
2026.05 | 0.1796 | -0.0572 | - | |
2026.05 | 0.1798 | - | - | |
2026.05 | 0.1803 | - | -0.0565 | |
2026.05 | 0.1839 | - | -0.0547 | |
2026.05 | 0.1872 | - | - | |
2026.05 | 0.1872 | -0.0628 | - | |
2026.05 | 0.1872 | - | -0.0628 | |
2026.05 | 0.1892 | - | - | |
2026.05 | 0.1892 | -0.0494 | - | |
2026.05 | 0.1898 | - | - | |
2026.05 | 0.1935 | - | - | |
2026.05 | 0.197 | - | - | |
2026.05 | 0.2368 | - | - | |
2026.05 | 0.2387 | - | - | |
2026.05 | 0.25 | - | - |